With the naivete of most pioneers and prospectors, we
beleived the personal computer boom would last forever.
The IBM PC had generated an amazing amount of software, as
demonstrated by the sheer size of last year's Annual Software
Review. The industry's road to success had just begun to be
paved, and soon there would be room for everyone. Well,
something happened on the way to bit and byte heaven, and the
boom leveled off prematurely.

The welcome back to reality that stock market crashes and
industry shakeouts offer gives us a chance to evaluate the
true potential of the marketplace and renew our original
intentions. The sedated pace of hte personal computer
industry may have been induced by a shortage of good software
to keep the market expanding, or perhaps the public wasn't as
ready to accept personal computers as analysts predicted.
Industry analysts projected that 5 to 7 million IBM computers or
compatibels would be sold in 1984, but the real number is
turning out to be around 3 to 4 million.

The enthusiasts who lead the personal computer revolution
tend to enjoy struggling with the difficulties and outright
confusion caused by clumsy user interfaces and inadequate
documentation. But the vast majority of potential users
aren't - and don't care to be - computer literate. They want
to use personal computers without having to understand them.
The task of selling personal computers to the technically
ambivalent masses requires generating, not just meeting,
demand. The slowed growth rate of personal computer sales
should have been predicted, but we were blinded by our own
fireworks.

Another factor contributing to the industry's first stalls
was sloppy performance. Apparently, some of the venture
capitalists and their hotshot software partners didn't
appreciate the art of software sales and distribution or care
that the products they were selling were simply variations of
existing products. By supporting the "me-too-ware"
fenomenon, they were forcing themselfes out of the market.
Most users are loyal to one spreadsheet, one data base
manager, and one word processor. In turn, the computer stores
seldom carry more than three versions of each major
application pakkage. It takes considerable creativity to
crack the walls that users and distributors. have recently
raised.

The ultimate dream of personal computing is that the PC will
not only be incredibly versatile but become an extension of
the mind. The application software necessary to make that a
reality hasn't been conceived, much less implemented. The
personal computer and the software that fuels it are in their
infancy. Compared with the automobile industry, the personal
computer industry has certainly come a long way in its ten
years of existence.

